Moody's estimates over a 7% drop in home values for Portland/Vancouver area

[tefen]

According to the nice little chart at the bottom of this article, Moody's is anticipating a 7.2% drop for homes in the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton area by the fourth quarter of 2008.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/19/real_estate/steep_home_price_drops_coming/index.htm?postversion=2007091915

Guess it's time to fire up the calculator and figure out what my tax savings should be!

[Chief]

I saw an article some time ago (I'll find it and bump it) that said the ouses in this area were already overporiced by at least 30%.

While you have that calculator out, figure the odds that the Clark County Assessor's Office believes this rumor at all...

[Waterbuffalo]

If the taxes go down, the City and County's new funding schemes go up.. Wish you both the best of luck and tax savings.

[Chief]

It home values drop, and tax revenues drop, then new funding schemes go up in flames...

Again, figure the odds that your house will be reassessed downwards anytime soon. The next assessments are due out around the end of this month or the beginning of next. We shall see...

[Waterbuffalo]

Chief: You don't think the City of Vancouver and Clark County won't find a way to stick their hands in your pocket in another way just to make up for this shortfall?

[Chief]

Not without putting up some sort of ballot measure, no.

If you consider the past few years, reassessments have been the most effective means of quietly raising taxes without any votes at all. You can't even get someone like Larry Patella to bitch about the reassessments, that's how good they are at it.

[Waterbuffalo]

Maybe its time for a visit by Tim and a few anti-tax folks to put a local ballot measure to cap taxes that are local in nature..

Are the property taxes legislated at the County or State level Chief? That would be the next step.

But like you said before, if one tried to get the anti-tax stuff passed, who would it hurt? Probably just the average lowly shub it would hurt..

[tefen]

Alright, area buyers don't seem to be getting the memo. The news had an article about Zillow today, so I went to check out my zEstimate... It's at an all time high, $303,000.

The cause?
First that $336,000 for a 2 bed, 1 bath, 1,911 sqft bought on August 2nd which I already reported.
Now, $300,955 for a 2 bed, 1 bath, 1,329 sqft bought on August 14th!

My house is a 2 bed, 1 bath, 2,201 sqft on a double lot.


Haven't these buyers heard we're in a housing recession?

[Chief]

What's the land v house split on that 1329 sq ft house?? Price per sq.ft. (actual) would help...

[tefen]

I almost put that in the first post... but decided it was a bit much.

House one:
1,911 sqft house; 5,102 sqft lot; $175/sqft of house; $65/sqft of land

House two:
1,329 sqft house; 8,105 sqft lot; $226/sqft of house; $37/sqft of land

Mine, at an estimate of $301,308 (?? what happened to the $303k from earlier today?)
2,201 sqft house; 10,354 sqft lot; $80/sqft of house; $17/sqft of land

[Chief]

You're right in the ballpark with land values up on this end of town. It's important to consider the land split because there are so many lots these days that are micro-miniature, and that directly affects the total cost.

[Waterbuffalo]

Tefen lives in one of the more expensive areas of Vancouver. Similar to the situation on Cascade Park and the eastern side of Vancouver.. Though he's getting a new bridge to the Port of Vancouver over the BNSF rail lines, possible new Park and ride lot no one wants to live next, and many other new redevelopment efforts the city is trying to come forth with to improve its image.

If you look at the redevelopment of Central core of Vancouver, Highway 99 and Hazel Dell redevelopment plans, do you expect the City and County are going to make every inch of this county doesn't measure up to their own highest and best use ideas? Infill, redevelopment of Eyesore business districts, (Town Plaza, Highway 99, Kyocera area along Fourth Plain, probably more I am not thinking of at the moment..) in attempt to raise the property values and add more to their tax roles.

Wish you both best in your tax assessments.. Hope you do appeal each and every part of the evaluation..Maybe that will start a trend..

[Chief]

Last year started the trend, with a record of over 1000 appeals of assessments in the County. I believe that's why they are late out this year; they are cleaning up from last year before they make a new mess...

[Waterbuffalo]

Does the Assessor need more qualified help in cleaning up this years specials?