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View Full Version : Forecasters say state revenues to take $423 million hit


Chief
02-16-2008, 07:39 AM
http://columbian.com/news/localNews/2008/02/02152008_Forecasters-say-state-revenues-to-take-423-million-hit.cfm

Friday, February 15, 2008
By KATHIE DURBIN, Columbian Staff Writer

OLYMPIA - Washington lawmakers learned Friday that they will have $423 million less in revenue to work with as they write the state's 2008-09 supplemental budget this winter.

Dr. ChangMook Sohn, the state's chief revenue forecaster, delivered the news after reviewing the latest national economic forecast data. He said Washington won't escape the effects of a mild national recession that is expected to last through the second quarter of 2008.

"The outlook for the state economy is significantly brighter than for the U.S., but we will be affected by the national slowdown as well as our own housing market problems," Sohn said.

StatThe state's revenue shortfall is being driven by declining consumer confidence nationally, reflected in lower-than-expected sales tax revenue, and by a long-predicted slowdown in the housing market. Revenue from the state's real estate excise tax is expected to be down by $232 million by next June, a whopping 35.6 percent.

The overall revenue shortfall, the largest since 2001, still represents just 1.4 percent of the state's $30.2 billion two-year general fund budget.

But Gov. Chris Gregoire had hoped to leave a $1.2 billion ending fund balance going into the 2009-11 biennium. Budget-writers said that might not be doable now even if they draw the line at most new spending.

The House budget is scheduled for release next week, the Senate budget the week after.

"I think it's going to make a pretty interesting next three weeks," said Victor Moore, Gregoire's budget director.

This is a third of what Rep. Jim Dunn was predicting just a week ago, and he went to a lot of time and trouble to make the point that the real number was more like $1.2 Billion...

So who do we believe on this?? Jim Dunn or your lying eyes??

8)

Waterbuffalo
02-16-2008, 09:13 AM
Well economists are just trying to predict the future.. So I do not think either Jim or OFM are perfect 100 percent of the time.

But one thing I will say is that the State of Washington is in a mild recession. If you look around, we also have people with ARM's and other problems. And the building slow down that hit the US is hitting us too a bit. Don't think we're getting as hit hard as other parts of the country because we're a more diversified economy.

But if one of our precepts hit the skids, Boeing or Defense Industries, Military, Tourism, Electronics or Software Industries (Microsoft, Intel, Micron, Electric Lightwave or many others.) We'd be in the same mess as the rest of the country.

Well Jim Dunn, are you looking into your own private crystal ball or will you divulge where you got your numbers and how you came to your comments?

Chief
02-16-2008, 02:12 PM
yah, well this time it's a little tougher to reconcile.

Who do you believe on this?? $423 Million is one third of what Dunn said this was...

wub

Waterbuffalo
02-17-2008, 06:00 AM
I'll pick the economist hands up and down..